Weather forecasts aren accurate for more than a few days ahead, so how can we possibly predict climate over the next 100 years?
Although they are made by the same sort of mathematical model, weather forecasts and climate predictions are really quite different. A weather forecast tells us what the weather (for example, temperature or rainfall) is going to be at a certain place and time over the next few days; it might say, for example, that there will be a band of heavy rain moving across Somerset tomorrow mid-morning. A climate prediction tells us about changes in the average climate, its variability and extremes. For example, it might say that the average temperature of summers in Somerset in 40 60 years time will be 4 degrees higher than it is currently, it will enjoy on average 25% more rain in winter with three times the current number of heavy rainfall events, and 50% less rain in summer. It will not make a specific forecast such as: it will be raining in Somerset on the morning of 15 October 2044.
Related Questions
- We do a poor job predicting the weather eight days ahead, so how can we expect computer models to predict future climate? Aren’t they really simplistic?
- Weather forecasts aren accurate for more than a few days ahead, so how can we possibly predict climate over the next 100 years?
- Weather forecasts aren’t always accurate a few days ahead, so how can you possibly predict what climate over the next 100 years?
