We do a poor job predicting the weather eight days ahead, so how can we expect computer models to predict future climate? Aren’t they really simplistic?
Global climate models—the software packages that simulate the past, present, and future of our atmosphere—have grown in complexity and quality over the last 10 to 20 years, and the most sophisticated models agree on the big picture of climate change. This includes the rough amount of warming expected and the idea that poles will warm faster than lower latitudes. As models have continued to improve, increasing agreement on regional details has emerged, such as the likelihood of more precipitation in the northern subpolar latitudes and a northward expansion of the hot, dry subtropics around 30°N. Climate models are not perfect, but the main ingredients are well understood and tested, and scientists are making progress in areas that remain a challenge, such as the behavior of tropical oceans and the evolution of cloud patterns. It’s important to note that models are not the only reason why scientists are concerned about climate change. For more than a century—long before many recent advan
Related Questions
- We do a poor job predicting the weather eight days ahead, so how can we expect computer models to predict future climate? Aren’t they really simplistic?
- Weather forecasts aren accurate for more than a few days ahead, so how can we possibly predict climate over the next 100 years?
- Weather forecasts aren’t always accurate a few days ahead, so how can you possibly predict what climate over the next 100 years?
