To what extent is the models increase in activity in the past few decades due to a destabilization of the atmosphere over the Atlantic?
We are working on a follow-up paper in which we investigates how much of the model-generated increase from 1980-2006 is due to changes in atmospheric stability and how much is due to changes in circulation (“shear”). We will report on these results as soon as we have finalized them, but we already know that stability is a significant factor for the model’s increase in storm activity over this period.
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