The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. How does that relate to the NBERs recession dating procedure?
Most of the recessions identified by our procedures do consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but not all of them. As an example, the last recession, in 2001, did not include two consecutive quarters of decline. As of the date of the committee’s meeting, the economy had not yet experienced two consecutive quarters of decline.
