Should healthy Medicare beneficiaries postpone enrollment in Medicare Part D?
Author InfoAdam Atherly (Department of Health Policy and Management, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA) Bryan Dowd (Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA) Abstract We compare estimated lifetime out-of-pocket prescription drug expenditures on outpatient prescription drugs, premiums and late enrollment penalties for healthy 65-year-old Medicare beneficiaries if they (a) purchase Part D as soon as they are eligible versus (b) waiting until they contract a drug-intensive condition. Using data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, a representative sample of the Medicare population, we estimate the annual probability that a healthy 65-year-old will transition to a drug-intensive health state or death. We then use Monte Carlo simulations to estimate expected lifetime prescription drug spending with and without drug insurance. We find that for the statutory minimum benefit pol
