Rosetta will be flying past the Earth in March 2005, November 2007 and November 2009. What are the dangers of crashing back to Earth?
The chances of Rosetta hitting the Earth are millions to one. Many spacecraft have previously flown this manoeuvre and none of them have ever gone off course and crashed. During the first Earth fly-by, Rosetta will pass no closer than 4500 kilometres – 10 times further than the ISS. The second fly-by will be at a distance of 1400 kilometres – three times the altitude of the ISS. The spacecraft’s position will be monitored continually and carefully adjusted before both fly-bys. There will also be plenty of fuel on board for orbital manoeuvres. If by any extremely remote chance an atmospheric entry did occur, it would disintegrate and burn up in the atmosphere, causing no damage on Earth. What are the chances that Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko changes course drastically before Rosetta reaches it? Very, very low. There would need to be a very unlikely dramatic event to alter its orbit.
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