Of the different kinds of prediction discussed in the book, climate change is the most contentious. Is there a connection between predictions of the short-term weather, and the long-term climate?
It is often said that predicting the climate is much easier than predicting the weather. However both types of prediction are based on similar models, and suffer from the same kinds of model errors. One of the largest sources of error is clouds. Cloud formation is a complex process that depends on myriad local interactions between water vapour, air, and microscopic particles that act as seeds. This cannot be precisely modelled – there is no equation for a cloud. Modellers therefore use approximate formulas. This is why predictions of rainfall and other precipitation are so unreliable. Because clouds also play a key role in regulating the climate, climate predictions are also sensitive to small changes in the way clouds are represented.
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