Nobel Prize winner Herbert Simon claims that it takes 100,000 to 2 million “memory patterns” to make an expert. How does it square with your estimations based on SuperMemo?
Simon’s estimate is surprisingly accurate considering the fact that he did not use any mathematical formulas for estimating the forgetting rate. He started off with a very rough estimation of time needed to establish a single memory pattern and used his “10 years of hard work” prescription for an expert. However, the number 100,000 is probably closer to the real memory power of an expert.
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