Most technologists would say they’re lucky if they have a clue about the technologies that will be available in five years. How can they look ahead 15 years?
People say their long-term vision is three to five years. But I know a company with a massive IT backbone?it’s an insurance pension fund?that’s looking at advanced technologies 10 to 15 years down the road. They’re testing experimental capabilities in wireless data transmission. When the technology becomes usable, they’ll be on track. What has to happen first is you have to draw a very broad vision of where the organization is going. Once you know what kinds of markets you’re going to serve, the kinds of customers, you can look internally to see what kinds of systems you will need. Then you need to talk to people in the research labs, asking where the technology is heading. What’s going to be available 15 years from now is available right now in some prototype.
