Ive adhered to forecasting principles; now how do I get management to use my forecasts?
The rational approach, tell and sell, does not seem to work well when the forecaster brings bad news that implies change is necessary. If possible, obtain prior agreement from forecast users on the methods you will use and get the clients commitment to accept forecasts from the agreed upon process. One approach that has been successful is the use of scenarios. For example, G. T. Chesney wrote a vivid description of the defeat of the British by the Germans in the 1872 Battle of Dorking for Blackwoods Magazine. The scenario was published in 1871, creating both sensation and policy changes. Note that scenarios does not mean alternatives, as the term is sometimes used in pop management and spreadsheets: scenarios are detailed written stories about what happened in the future. Principles for writing scenarios are summarized by Gregory and Duran (2001).
