Is world population growth slowing down?
Start with the U.N. projections. Their record has been very good. In 1955 they projected the 2000 population, and it was off by only 3% or 4%. Their medium projection is that world population will reach 8.9 billion in 2050. It will go up just a bit after that. This assumes, on average, two surviving children per woman. Q: Why would population keep rising if women are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partners? A: Two reasons. The first is mortality declines. People will stay alive longer. Also, there’s “population momentum.” There are so many young people entering their fertile years that even if they have only two children per couple, there will be an echo baby boom. That factor alone will cause 50% further growth in population in developing countries. Q: What are the birth rates in developing countries? A: On average they’re down to three births per woman. That’s likely to go down to two in the next 25 years. The U.N. projects no change in fertility rates in
