Is there any reason to think “folk forecasting” methods, such as the thickness of fur on animals, work?
Most folk forecasting methods don’t work. In general, if animals grow thicker fur, it’s because of what the weather has been doing not what it’s going to do. In order to react to future weather, animals would have to detect some kind of “signal” of the coming weather. Obviously there are signals of a storm that’s going to hit in a few minutes or maybe an hour or so, such as air pressure changes, that animals or people might feel. But, no one has ever found any signals of what the weather is going to do months from now that animals could detect, unless maybe the animals have built-in radio receivers that pick up satellite broadcasts of Pacific Ocean temperatures that scientists use to track El Niño.. A National Weather Service essay on weather proverbs has more on this topic.
