Is there any evidence of global warming and/or climactic global changes affecting the monsoon seasons in Asia?
Dear Joel, The available datasets make it clear that the Asian monsoon system has significant fluctuations over periods of a decade or longer. However, attributing those fluctuations to particular causes is a messy business. We know that the monsoon can exhibit a wide range of behaviors for a given average state of the atmosphere. On the other hand, we know that the average state of the atmosphere has significant fluctuations. And, when the average state of the atmosphere changes, the typical progression of the monsoon likely changes. For example, during the mid-Holocene era (some 6,000 years ago) the earth’s orbital parameters were slightly different than they are now, causing the seasons to be stronger than they are now. Paleoclimate data show that the main regions of monsoon precipitation shifted northward in both Asia and Africa during that time. We do know that the tropical Indian Ocean has warmed over the last three decades, which likely has an important effect on the Asian Monso
