Is there a better way to define recession?
Many economists prefer to do a much more complex analysis to determine whether a country is in a recession. What needs to be added into the equation, says Mr. Orr, is data on industrial production, consumer spending and labour markets. In the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) takes these and other numbers into account to officially declare whether a recession has happened. The NBER (or more specifically, the NBER’s “business cycle dating committee”) says that a recession is the period that begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity, and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Sometimes NBER data show there is a recession, even if GDP hasn’t declined for two quarters. That was the case in 2001, when the U.S. was deemed to be in recession even though there were no successive quarterly GDP declines.
