Is the mean-reversion adjustment applied uniformly across all states?
No. The mean-reversion adjustment is based on the notion that national polling data will tighten as the election nears. This does not necessarily imply that polling in any particular state will tighten. Instead, we first calculate the overall degree of mean-reversion expected in the national popular vote, and then imprint it on individual states through the process described here. States that have been more sensitive to movement in the national numbers will receive a larger degree of mean-reversion.
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