Is the interior large-scale nudging exerting a strong control over individual genesis events in the control simulation?
Some of our colleagues have questioned whether the technique by which we force the model towards the observed large-scale state of the atmosphere is somehow forcing the observed storms to form in the model during the control period. If this were the case, it would clearly reduce the value of our control simulations as a test of model quality. But this is not the case; the individual storms in the model do not form in the same location or times as observed storms. If we perturb our initial condition a bit at the start of the hurricane season, we change the places and times at which storms form, and the total number of storms within the season generally differs somewhat as well. We hope to make this point more clearly in future publications on this model. The boundary conditions in the model – especially the boundary conditions over Africa at the eastern boundary of the domain – do generate disturbances that provide some raw material for storm development. But ongoing research suggests t
