Is the estimated pre-war mortality rate consistent with other information?
Summary: the calculation of excess deaths depends on an accurate estimate of pre-war mortality. The figure in the Lancet study is consistent with other recent estimates for Iraq, as well as estimates for other countries in the region. Some commentators have expressed concern that the pre-war crude mortality rate of 5.5/1000 found by the study may not be consistent with other estimates. If the number estimated were lower than the true number, the number of excess deaths would be over-estimated, while a higher number would lead to an under-estimate of excess deaths. For details of how excess deaths are calculated, please see this FAQ Fred Kaplan raised these issues in in an article in Slate: “The Lancet study’s base-line number is dubious … according to data from the United Nations, based on surveys taken at the time, Iraq’s preinvasion mortality rate was 10 per 1,000. … It is also noteworthy that, if Iraq’s preinvasion mortality rate really was 5.5 per 1,000, it was lower than that
