Is the D-mark a better, safer haven than the US bond market?
I don’t think deutsche mark and/or T-bonds offer better, safer havens. They are both rock solid. The question is currency exposure: How much DM and how much US-dollar exposure people in the markets want to take. My guess is that people parked money in money market instruments like LIBOR (the London interbank rate) and overnight deposits to use them in a day or two to buy–yes, what else–stocks. When people are nervous about markets including interest rates, they tend to invest in short duration instruments, especially if they entertain putting money back in stock markets. Short-term, where can we expect the market to be by Christmas? Unpredictable. Usually, I would say for two months we are looking at 3%-4% higher on average. I think that there will be excessive volatility as markets sort out the information about fundamental from over reaction conveyed in recent events. Did the circuit breakers help? I don’t think anybody has the answer to that question. My belief is that circuit bre
