Is the atmosphere likely to produce precipitation that will reach the ground over the forecast region?
Discussion: See the precipitation progs from the various models and compare them. Infer what the risk is of precipitation evaporating before reaching the ground (can occur if UVV is small and PBL is dry). 3. Are surface temperatures below freezing during precipitation event? Discussion: Keep in mind the precip progs show accumulated precipitation over a 12 hour period. Since the temperature occurs at the valid time but precipitation is cumulative, freezing temperatures at the valid time does not mean the precipitation that occurred during the previous 12 hours has to be of the frozen variety. Use the surface and 1000-mb progs for low level temperatures and compare the models. 4. Will the precipitation fall as all snow? Discussion: If sfc and 850 temperatures are below freezing, snow is the most likely precipitation. Compare models. 5. Is there a potential for freezing rain or sleet? Discussion: 850 temperatures of 4 C or more above freezing but with 1000 and sfc temperatures below free
