Is probability theory relevant to ones philosophical view of the self?
“So on the one hand we have a probability of 1, and on the other hand a probability of 1/10<50>, depending on one’s point of view. But surely probability should be independent of viewpoint? If so, only one of the values can be right, and I think most rational people would intuitively choose the ‘own viewpoint’ figure of 1/10<50> and rule out ‘chance’, preferring some other explanation (delusion? divine providence?).” Actually both probabilities are correct and are independent of viewpoint because they are answering different questions. The first probability answers the question “What is the probability someone wins?” The second one answers the question “What is the probability that I win?” I phrased the second question from my point of view, but I could have easily phrased it from someone else’s point of view: “What is the probability that you win?” His “you” is the same as my “I” and so the probabilities are the same. As another answerer mentioned, there are paradigms in probability t
