Is Probability an Outstanding Element in the Mental Representation of Risky Decisions?
Recall performance of (1) actively searched information vs. information prestructured by the experimenter and (2) actively searched probability information vs. non-probability information in quasi-realistic risky decisions was investigated. 42 subjects decided in 2 scenarios each. Information presentation was varied within subjects by means of the Active Information Search method (O.Huber, Wider & O.W.Huber, 1997). After a frugal basic description of the scenario (prestructured information) subjects ask questions and receive answers until they subjectively have enough information to decide (active search). In only 55% of the tasks probability was searched. Recall was measured 48 hours afterwards as surprise task, showing (1) actively searched probability being on average better recalled than other actively searched information and (2) actively searched information being better recalled than prestructured information. It is argued that (1) actively searched information in general is of
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