Is it possible to predict phenology of codling moth?
Insects are cold-blooded animals. Development of their immature stages is keyed to climatic factors, primarily temperature. It is, therefore, possible to predict stage changes from climatic records. For immature stages of codling moth, growth begins at ca. 10oC, which can be taken as a common threshold for development of the three stages, namely the eggs, larvae, and pupae. Each stage has a specific heat requirement to complete development and transform to the next stage. Research has shown that physiological time models (which require climatic data input) used in combination with pheromone traps catch data provide a reliable system to predict the phenology of the codling moth. These models, however, are limited in predicting the duration of events such as preoviposition, mating, and oviposition.
