Is hybrid-electric the technology best suited to economical efficiency improvements?
At the moment, hybrid electric is the best suited to see a payback on the incremental costs in the truck and bus market, but payback periods on these vehicles remains relatively long, up to 10 years. As fuel costs rise, we will see the payback period reduced and the economic equation will shift more in favor of hybrids and plug-in hybrids. Battery electric trucks will offer a very attractive economic equation in specific situations as battery costs come down in 2012 or 2013. How long will hybrid-electric trucks be dependent on government subsidies? [Note: Federal tax credits can be $10,000 or more for a truck selling for about $100,000. With state incentives, the subsidies can cover the incremental cost of a hybrid truck compared to a conventional diesel version.] The subsidies will continue to be very important through at least 2013 or 2014. After that, it will depend on how quickly battery costs fall. I anticipate that we may see some of the smaller trucks—roughly up to 14,000 or 16,
