Is climate modeling an effective tool for predicting future climate change?
An argument one often hears from opponents of the Kyoto protocol is that the science behind climate change is too uncertain and fuzzy to rely on for making policy decisions that could have such a huge impact on our economies. There is definitely a certain level of uncertainty behind climate modeling and predicting the climate’s future. The natural variability of the process is one area of concern as well as the possibility of unknown factors influencing the system. There is also the uncertainty over our ability to accurately predict future emissions of green house gases and aerosols. It is difficult to predict exactly how much CO2 the developing countries will emit as they try to catch up to the developed world. There is also uncertainty over how the biosphere will react to global warming, in particular in regard to carbon storage. As climate change progresses and forests spread into normally inhabitable tundra regions, there will be an increase in carbon storage but inversely trees wi
