Is Bruce Bueno de Mesquitas Game Theory forecasting computer program for real?
He is a political science professor with apparently no mathematical background. Yet, he professes to have developed a computer program that goes beyond the current state of Game Theory and is able to forecast the future with 90% accuracy. Apparently, he states his algorithm and related predictive capabilities have been tested hundreds of times. He mentions several examples always related to foreign affairs issues. Whenever anyone proclaims he (or his computer program) can predict the future with 90% accuracy especially with something as complex as foreign affairs outcomes red flags go up in my mind. That’s especially the case when the individual does not seem to have the prerequisite academic background for the relevant domain (advanced mathematics-Game Theory). Is that stuff for real?
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