Is a Genocide Warrant Futile, or Even Counterproductive?
The ICC does not conduct trials in absentia, and even if it did, a conviction of Al Bashir while he remains in power would seem to offer little, if any, benefit to Al Bashir’s victims. Sudan does not officially prohibit private media, but government harassment of independent news outlets and the dire condition of the victims mean that many Sudanese will never even learn that their president has been accused of genocide. Moreover, the ICC charges could well prove counterproductive. Barring “regime change” in the Sudan, the best hope for the Darfur victims is probably some negotiated settlement enforced by a robust peacekeeping force consisting of African Union or United Nations troops. A hybrid AU/UN force now operates in Darfur, but it has limited effect. The genocide charges against Al Bashir could complicate negotiations for a more robust peacekeeping force with a different mission.
