Initial Jobless Claims, Unemployment Volatility: Can We Please Drop the Word Unexpected?
For some reason, the word unexpected or the even more grotesque, unexpectedly, have come into widespread use in the coverage of weekly initial jobless claims. If you search online, you will see dozens of instances of its use — or rather of its misuse. My point? Initial jobless claims have always been volatile, therefore big changes — up or down — are not unexpected. Now, in all fairness, this is an easy trap in which to fall. Not long ago, I used the term expected in a blog post. So, if something comes along that really is unexpected or not expected, OK. What I am writing about is the hackneyed use of the term to describe a situation that is not at all unexpected. Take a look at this chart (below) from the St. Louis Federal Reserve. The line shows changes in initial jobless claims over the past couple of years or so. The gray area indicates the period of the recession, which ended in the third quarter of 2009. As you can see, this initial jobless claim number changes frequently. The ge
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