In reality, how quickly can the forces leave?
Military experts say a significant draw-down of US forces could take anywhere between one and three years. About 158,000 US forces are currently in Iraq, with three brigades scheduled for withdrawal by July. That will bring US forces down to a level of about 140,000 by the time Bush leaves the White House in 2009. The Pentagon is likely to follow the pattern set this year in drawing down Petraeus’s surge, gradually reducing combat forces deployed in more secure areas. However, there will be pressure to maintain or devote more troops to the training of Iraqi support units: specifically military intelligence, medical and communications experts. Preparations for a final withdrawal must also factor in the difficulties of moving tanks and other heavy equipment that the US will not want to leave behind. At present, heavy equipment remains when troops are rotated in and out of Iraq. “Unless we reach some catastrophic point, you are not going to see five or seven brigades redeploying all at on
