If we limit ourselves to the issue of ameliorating poverty in Venezuela, has Chávez been successful?
This is the type of question that makes the social sciences interesting and challenging, and sets it apart from mere journalism. There’s no doubt that poverty has been reduced in Venezuela very significantly, but it’s not clear how much he has achieved. When Chávez came to power, oil was below $20 a barrel, and it got to $147 a barrel. It’s now hovering around $80. When you have that order of magnitude of increase in the price of your main export, then, of course, good things are bound to happen. The calculations that we have made suggest that all of Venezuela’s progress — including the reduction in poverty — is due to the increase in the price of oil and not policy improvement. What we are seeing today is that many of the achievements that Venezuela posted two or three years ago are going down the drain due to inflation: shortages, a lack of water and power outages, among them. The real question is what would have happened in Venezuela if, instead of Chávez, they had had someone like
