If Democrats awarded delegates through winner take all, who would be the democratic nominee?
If this were a winner take all / no super-delegate contest where the State’s democratic delegate counts were still the same as they are now. As of today (4/23/2008) Hillary would be at 1,928 and Obama would be at 1,488 (not counting FL or MI). Neither would be over the 2,025 “winner” mark yet – but Clinton would be much further ahead. If you count FL & MI Clinton would be the nominee at 2,296. She wouldn’t have even need PA’s 187 last night. The contest would have ended on March 4th with TX, OH & RI when she would have landed at 2,109. If you look at Clinton’s wins versus Obama’s wins State by State the map begins to look a lot like the blue vs red states from 2004 where Obama is winning where Bush won and Clinton is winning where Kerry won (mostly). This should hold very well for Obama when he gets the nomination. I say “when” because the odds of Clinton catching up with Obama on either pledged delegates or total votes are astronomical. The same astronomical odds are there for MI & FL
