I used the specialized version of the fourt-woodlock equation to calculate annual sales and my estimate did not match your 50% odds value?
The value you calculated is the mean (average) annual sales value. The 50% odds value we report is the median annual sales value. These values can be very close or very different depending on the variance in all of the inputs. Notice in the first curve that the mean and median are the same. This is what you expect to happen, but due to the variance in all the inputs the actual distribution looks more like the second curve. The mean value is still the same, but the median (50% odds value) is lower. Reporting 80%, 50% and 20% odds of at least this value is our way of accurately describing the curve and providing the best information to help you make a more informed business decision.
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