I am baffled by the average ending portfolio balance amounts. Why would one want that much remaining?
Look at the chart again. Some of the lines end at over 6 times the starting point, and these drive the average up to a little over $1 million. But some end well below zero. Since the calculator is designed to help avoid depleting the nest egg, users will normally fiddle with the withdrawals and so forth until few if any lines hit zero — but given the variability of possible outcomes, that will push the AVERAGE end point way up there. The reason the calculator was designed this way is that folks thinking of retiring early have to potentially face 30, 40, or more years of uncertain market returns, while a “normal” retiree might only face an average of 10 – 15 years. In practice, if things are going really well with the market in the early years (the situation that results in the highest ending balances), most folks will readjust and spend more.
