How will pre-spawn mortality affect Pacific Northwest salmon over time?
Pre-spawn mortality may have important consequences for regional coho salmon populations. For example, if only half the adults returning to a stream survive to spawn, then the number of offspring from the stream will be approximately reduced by half. Over the entire Puget Sound region, these impacts on survival rates could reduce the productivity of wild coho populations. A population model was constructed to simulate how changes in various survival rates could affect the overall coho population. Preliminary model simulations only account for adult mortality, so potential impacts on other salmon life stages caused by polluted stormwater runoff are not currently included. These models demonstrate the potential for rapid loss of local populations of coho salmon in urban streams receiving polluted stormwater runoff.
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