How will ocean warming in the next 50 years affect sub-Arctic marine ecosystems?
A recent model study investigated the response of oceanic ecosystems to ocean warming using six coupled climate ocean model simulations; the six independent models were forced with identical carbon dioxide increase scenarios. Major oceanic domains were defined on the basis of vertical velocity, maximum mixed layer depth and seasonal sea ice cover. Modeled conditions in 2050 were compared with control conditions (at the beginning of the industrial revolution, 1850). Satellite ocean color was used to develop an empirical model to predict chlorophyll from physical conditions. Using three primary production (PP) algorithms, we estimated the PP based on estimated chlorophyll concentrations. Analysis of the change in global PP in 2050 showed <1% change from 1850. This surprising result was caused by the offsetting of small PP decreases in the large tropical and temperate ocean by large PP increases in the small polar and subpolar regions. This presentation analyzes results of this model stud
