How will Climate Change influence Flood Risk?
Climate change can potentially have a very significant effect on flood risk in the longer term as probability of occurrence of an event of a given magnitude is altered. We would expect to see flows which are currently classified as having a 1% (1 in 100 year) probability occur more frequently, therefore their probability will increase. This means defences which at present provide a 1 in 100 year standard of protection will effectively offer a lower standard of protection. Subsequently the flood risk posed to the areas behind these defences will increase. This is also true for tidal levels. Indication are that if nothing is done and climate change does take place with the predicted rates, the 1000 year protection level would drop to approximately 100 year by 2050 and 20 year by 2100 Within an SFRA climate change needs to be examined to assess the robustness of the mitigation measures proposed, and also to assess how the high risk zone may increase in lateral extent, and the scale of its
