How will Australia s climate change in future?
By the year 2030, our average temperatures are likely to be higher than today. Northern coastal regions may experience an increase of from 0.3C to 1C. Southern coastal regions may warm by between 0.3C and 1.3C. Inland areas are likely to warm slightly more than coastal regions. (We present a range of likely temperature increases in an attempt to show both the uncertainty of future greenhouse gas emissions and hence the growth of atmospheric concentrations, and the uncertainty of how much warming will be associated with particular concentration changes.) Changes to rainfall are much harder to predict than temperature. By the year 2030, winter rainfall in southern Australia may decrease by up to 10% (or increase by up to 5%). Summer rainfall over Australia may increase or decrease by up to 10%. More hot days are expected, and fewer frosts and less snow. In regions where rainfall increases, more floods are anticipated.
Australia will be hotter and drier in coming decades. Warmer conditions will produce more extremely hot days and fewer cold days. Over most of the continent, annual average temperatures will be 0.4 to 2 degrees Celsius greater than 1990 by 2030. By 2070, average temperatures are likely to increase by 1 to 6 degrees Celsius. The temperature ranges quoted indicate the scientific uncertainty associated with the projections. The warming won’t be the same everywhere. There will be slightly less warming in some coastal areas and Tasmania, and slightly more warming in the north-west. South-western Australia can expect decreases in rainfall, as can parts of south-eastern Australia and Queensland. Wetter conditions are possible in northern and eastern Australia in summer and inland Australia in autumn. When combined with the increase in potential evaporation, the changes in rainfall will lead to drier conditions in Australia. In areas that experience little change or an increase in average rain
