How were the BLS 2008-18 employment projections affected by the recent recession?
The BLS employment projections are based on analysis of long-term structural changes to the economy, not short-term business cycle fluctuations. BLS does not attempt to project the peaks and troughs of business cycles, and our projections model assumes a full employment economy in the target year. Because the economy is expected to trend out of the recession and return to full employment over the 10-year projections period, the current projections indicate faster growth rates and more numerous openings than might have been expected in several industries had employment not fallen in 2008, as the economy recovers from the current downturn. For a more detailed discussion, see “Employment projections, 2008-2018,” Kristina J. Bartsch, November 2009 Monthly Labor Review.
