how well is climate change understood?
“Confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased. Complex physically-based climate models are required to provide detailed estimates of feedbacks and of regional features. Such models cannot yet simulate all aspects of climate (e.g., they still cannot account fully for the observed trend in the surface-troposphere temperature difference since 1979) and there are particular uncertainties associated with clouds and their interaction with radiation and aerosols. Nevertheless, confidence in the ability of these models to provide useful projections of future climate has improved due to their demonstrated performance on a range of space and time-scales. Understanding of climate processes and their incorporation in climate models have improved, including water vapour, sea-ice dynamics, and ocean heat transport.
2.2.1. Complex computer models are used to predict future climate. Understanding of climate processes and their incorporation in computer models has improved. Although such models still cannot simulate all aspects of climate, confidence in their ability to provide useful projections has increased. They can now better reproduce the 20th century global warming , using both natural and anthropogenic forcing (see Figure 4). More… 2.2.2. However further research is required to improve the ability to detect, attribute and understand climate change, to reduce uncertainties and to project future climate changes. More…
