How was the Gail model developed? What Risk factors were considered in developing the Gail model?
The Gail model was developed by Mitchell Gail using data from the Breast Cancer Detection and Demonstration Project (BCDDP). The BCDDP was a study that included 285,000 white women who were willing to have annual examinations. Gail developed his model from a subset of women in the study and found that the factors most associated with breast cancer include: increasing age, menstruation before age 12, live birth after age 30, not having children, a first degree relative with breast cancer, and having had a breast biopsy. Several factors were determined to be of significance: cigarette smoking, oral contraceptives, thyroid supplements, and other medical conditions. Increased height was found to be a slight risk factor but it was too slight to include in the model. Other factors were associated with modest increases including alcohol consumption and long term menopausal estrogen therapy, but the number of women exposed to these risk factors was too small (30).
