How uncertain is model-based prediction of copper loads in stormwater runoff?
Lindblom E; Ahlman S; Mikkelsen PS Institute of Environment & Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Bygningstorvet 115, DK-2800 Kgs., Lyngby, Denmark. eul@er.dtu.dk In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of the uncertainty related with estimating the total load of pollution (copper) from a separate stormwater drainage system, conditioned on a specific combination of input data, a dynamic conceptual pollutant accumulation-washout model and measurements (runoff volumes and pollutant masses). We use the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology and generate posterior parameter distributions that result in model outputs encompassing a significant number of the highly variable measurements. Given the applied pollution accumulation-washout model and a total of 57 measurements during one month, the total predicted copper masses can be predicted within a range of +/-50% of the median value. The message is that this relatively large uncertainty should be ac
