How to avoid conflict in the Taiwan area – work with China?
A key problem for the U.S. under these circumstances is how to avoid conflict in the Taiwan Strait prompted most immediately by the continuing and perhaps worsening uncertainty in Taiwan. As in the case of recent U.S. policy with an unpredictable South Korea, Taiwan seems unreliable and a big part of the problem. Of course, the U.S. can try to press Taiwan to adjust policy more in line with U.S. interests, but this seems unlikely to be successful. The U.S. may also be able to use military, economic, or other measures on its own that could stabilize the situation, but it is hard to see what unilateral U.S. measures would work well under current circumstances. Meanwhile, a path that has been surprisingly satisfactory for the Bush administration in the case of Koreans to deal more directly and constructively with China. Beijing leaders also seem to have a need to work closely with the U.S. in order to avoid confrontation and conflict with the U.S. prompted by unpredictable developments in
