How should the BLS 2006-16 employment projections be viewed in light of the current recession?
The BLS employment projections are based on analysis of long-term structural changes to the economy, not short-term business cycle fluctuations. The 2006-16 employment projections incorporate information available up through their development in 2007. New projections are prepared every two years to incorporate new information; the next set of projections, covering the years 2008-18, will be released in December 2009. BLS does not attempt to project the peaks and troughs of business cycles, and our projections model assumes a full employment economy in the target year. Thus, the 2006-16 projections, which were developed before the current recession began in 2007, do not reflect recent economic fluctuations. However, to the extent that the current recession has a long-term impact on the fundamental structure of the economy, the 2006-16 data may over- or under-project long-term employment change for some industries and occupations. Projections users may wish to evaluate the BLS assumption
