How should a surgeons list of elective cases in the same OR on the same day be sequenced?
I recommend that you read the following review article: Making management decisions on the day of surgery based on operating room efficiency and patient waiting times [PDF]. Safety is usually unaffected by the sequence of elective cases. Nonetheless, if it were, safety is the first priority. Next, check if there is conflict over equipment or specialized personnel such that sequencing cases among ORs will reduce over-utilized hours. For the mathematics, see: Bayesian prediction bounds and comparisons of operating room times even for procedures with few or no historical data [PDF]. Typically, the decision will still not have been made. Sequence the cases from the most to the least predictable in duration. Predictability can be quantified as the difference between (i) the upper 90% prediction bound for the duration of the case and (ii) the mean of historical durations for the case. Generally, shorter cases will be more predictable than longer cases. However, there are so many exceptions t
