How reliable and accurate are weather forecasts in Ethiopia?
Amare Babu: The accuracy depends on the type of weather forecasts that we do. There are two types of forecast methodologies: statistical and dynamic (numerical). Using these methods, we do short-term, midterm, and long-term forecasts. The short-term forecast extends to three days and is 90pc accurate, while the midterm forecast extends to 10 days and is more than 80pc accurate. We use dynamic methods in both cases. If we use the dynamic method for long-term forecasts, the accuracy will drop to below 50pc. We use the statistical method for long-term forecasts, and it is more than 70pc accurate. However, by incorporating past experience and the weather of a particular area, we try to increase the accuracy of the forecast. What kind of technology do you use? We collect data from various stations and from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The WMO collects information from different parts of the world eight times a day. We use this data as well as satellite and radar photographs
