How often do Fulbright alternates become Fulbright scholars?
I know two people who went from alternates to getting spots. I think it happens a lot, because most people applying for Fulbrights are also applying for other grants, and they will choose the one with the most money, best reputation, and so on, which may not be the Fulbright. Plus, people get sick, have family crises, and other things that make them refuse the grant. So while I wouldn’t count on it, you definitely do have a chance. Make other plans, and let the Fulbright be a happy surprise if it comes through at the last minute. (For one person I know, the change from alternate to selected came very late, just before people were to leave; the story was that someone had gotten sick, and all the other alternates had already made other plans, so my friend who was at the bottom of the alternate list got the grant.