How near is Ethiopia to food self-sufficiency in good years?
In good years, such as in 2001, Ethiopia has produced around 95 percent of its cereals requirements (the main staple foods are cereals). How many people will be affected in 2003 if the main harvest is bad? Working with three scenarios, multi-agency needs assessment teams prepared contingency plans for 2003. While it is difficult to project the exact number of beneficiaries at this time for 2003, the teams attempted to forecast needs given three scenarios (best, mid and worst case). The scenarios used to project potential food and income shortfalls in 2003 are: • In the worse case, erratic rains would continue finally withdrawing early, • In the mid case, rains would return to normal in distribution and cessation, and • In the best case, rains would end after normal cessation dates, i.e. mid September in the north and gradually withdrawing in end October in the south. How is the Ethiopian Government reacting to this emergency? The Government of Ethiopia issued an appeal in July 2002 for
