How much separated plutonium does North Korea currently have? How many nuclear weapons may it possess?
The CIA, in an unclassified January 2003 report to Congress, wrote that North Korea “probably has produced enough plutonium for at least one, and possibly two, nuclear weapons.” Many have gone further than the CIA statement, claiming that North Korea definitely has enough plutonium for one or two nuclear weapons, although the basis for their claims is unclear. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) determined in 1992 and 1993 that North Korea separated more plutonium than the roughly 100 grams it declared. The IAEA, however, was unable to determine how much more plutonium North Korea produced and separated. Based on these statements and other evidence discussed in Solving the North Korean Nuclear Puzzle, North Korea is likely to have hidden kilogram quantities of separated plutonium, but the exact amount of undeclared plutonium remains uncertain. The worst-case estimate is that North Korea separated about 7-11 kilograms of plutonium. Assuming five kilograms of plutonium per nucl
