How much paediatric HIV infection could be prevented by antenatal HIV testing?
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the reduction in the number of children infected with HIV that might be achieved by extending the provision of voluntary antenatal HIV testing. This effect would be mediated by increased numbers of women infected with HIV who receive an intervention to reduce the risk of vertical transmission (for example, zidovudine or caesarean section delivery), who use an alternative to breast feeding, or whose pregnancy is terminated. SETTING: London, United Kingdom. METHODS: Relevant data were derived from neonatal seroprevalence studies, obstetric and paediatric reporting schemes, and review of external information. Sensitivity analyses were performed for certain parameters. RESULTS: Of 106,000 births annually in London, an estimated 169 are to women infected with HIV whose infection is not currently recognised before pregnancy. An estimated 28-33 children born to these women will be infected. Precise prediction of the number of paediatric HIV infections that could be prev
