How much irate mail does Baseball Prospectus get when the predictions come out?
Not as much as you would think. We have a high-tone class of reader. The thing I find ironic, not just with the predictions, but with any article we run, is we’ll get two pieces of e-mail, and one will say that we’re obviously biased toward the Red Sox. The other will say we’re against the Red Sox. We publish about 1,500 articles per year on the Web site, without editorial bias or directive from on high, just whatever the writer thinks. There are always two opposing camps. The great thing about Baseball Prospectus, the thing I enjoy, is that we’re people who argue based on the merits, and we’re open to persuasion. If you can make a good case, I’m open to revising my opinion. Can you explain how you come up with the Baseball Prospectus predictions? What’s the algorithm? We study runs scored and runs allowed. We look at individual players, using our system, called PECOTA, which stands for player empirical comparison and optimization test algorithm. It’s one of the best projectors of play
