How Might Marijuana Legalization in California Affect Drug Trafficking Revenues and Violence in Mexico?
The United States’ demand for illicit drugs creates markets for Mexican drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) and helps foster violence in Mexico. Some government and media sources have reported that Mexican and Colombian DTOs combined earn $18–$39 billion annually in wholesale drug proceeds and 60 percent of all Mexican DTO drug export revenue comes from marijuana. These numbers have been cited to argue that legalizing marijuana in California would reduce Mexican DTOs’ revenues, thereby reducing violence. In a new study funded by RAND International Programs, RAND researchers assessed how marijuana legalization in California might influence DTO revenues and the violence in Mexico. Key study highlights include the following: Contrary to some government and media estimates, Mexican DTOs’ annual gross revenues from illegally exporting marijuana and selling it to wholesalers in the United States are likely less than $2 billion; the study authors’ preferred estimate is $1.5 billion. The cla
